Iron ore faces variable plate

- Feb 15, 2019-

"Golden Nine silver Ten" expected or failed

With the recovery of domestic mine start-up rate and the increase of foreign ship shipments, the balance sheet of iron ore supply and demand will return to the loose state from the tight balance in the first half.

It is worth noting that the second half of the northern port iron ore arrival center is expected to move up, but steel mills to maintain a low inventory strategy and procurement enthusiasm is low, if the high port iron ore inventory has not been more quickly digested, this will be a strong crackdown on iron ore prices in the aftermarket.

The trend of excess in the steel industry has not changed

Since March, monthly crude steel production has achieved 5 consecutive months of growth. Judging from the high frequency data, the release speed of crude steel production was expected by the market, and in mid-August, the average daily production of crude steel again approached the historical high of 2.3 million tons/day.

And from the monthly crude steel apparent consumption point of view, the overall demand is in a downward trend. By the end of July, the steel industry had withdrawn 21.26 million tonnes of capacity, completing 47% of its full-year target. In addition to Zhejiang and other 4 provinces to be the first to complete the full-year task, Hebei, Liaoning and other 8 provinces work progress between 10%-35%, and more than 10 provinces to defuse steel excess capacity has not been substantially launched.

To this end, the NDRC and other relevant departments to determine the "implementation of responsibility, implementation measures, implementation progress, the implementation of reward and punishment" four implementation strategy, which forced many places and enterprises to the capacity of the time node ahead of schedule-from the original four or December to the current quarter. Predictably, September and October will be the peak of production capacity in the steel industry. In this context, although there is a "golden nine silver Ten" expected support, but steel production is difficult to have further room for further rise.