Steel Market Prices Are Hard To Weigh

- Feb 04, 2019-

Recently, the domestic 65Mn steel plate market sentiment has been diluted, futures plate has fallen several times, disturbance spot rise confidence, hot roll spot prices appear slightly loose this week. It is reported that the current downstream demand than the Spring Festival period has been significantly improved, despite this week's market slowdown, but the large household shipments remained largely around 200 tons, much less than last week. Morning prices fall, deal follow up, afternoon futures weak, spot steady. In the afternoon, rebar futures low hovering, the main contract has not played a "pattern" throughout the day, the end of the settlement price eventually closed down. Capital market no stimulus, spot prices have support: Leading dealers quote stability, small and medium-sized companies have not too much "concession", the overall market shipments are not too poor.

In addition, today's early plate SHA Steel Changlong electric rebar base price hanging 3853 yuan, compared to the same as the Friday, with the agent spread of 30-40 yuan/ton, afternoon Changlong e-commerce prices unchanged, it is said that also can not sell.

Price overall fall, sales are more ideal, West Shinkansen tracking spot trading data shows that today's terminal procurement volume is at a good level, indicating that more sites on demand orders; Rigid demand release, market transaction increment: Large inventory sales of more than 5,000 tons, small and medium-sized companies shipped five hundred or six hundred tons-better than the same period last week. If such sales can be maintained, the market price of the 65Mn steel plate will hardly be "weighed down."

This week's hot volume inventory fell for the first time, according to my network statistics, as of March 8, Domestic Hot coil inventory of 2.5386 million tons, the ring last week down 29,500 tons, steel plant inventory in 950,000 tons up and down, more than last week down about 10,000 tons, the stock of double drop mainly in March steel plant maintenance than February significantly increased, there are now Angang, steel (mid-month), Shougang Beijing and Tang 3 steel mills exist this month maintenance, Has affected the hot coil supply of 130,000 tons, after-market maintenance has further expansion expectations.

On the news surface, the unexpected reaction of the two sessions was light. Zhou, Tangshan issued a heavy pollution weather plan, driving the northern region prices slightly rise back, and east China South China and other places prices are mainly stable wait-and-see, Wuan production restrictions is mostly concentrated in the medium and thick plate, the impact on my hot-rolled coil is small, environmental protection production restrictions effect needs to be further observed.

However, in view of the current environmental protection production restrictions policy of the occasional disturbance, do not rule out the market for hot-rolled products on the impact of the introduction of production restrictions policy possible. To sum up, this week's price increases narrowed, mainly because of the message surface stimulation and demand start are limited, the main reason for the price increase is the current domestic hot-rolled steel mills active overhaul, next week, in view of the continued maintenance effect, demand in March relatively better expectations, It is expected that the price of the 65mn roll plate may still maintain a small rise back situation.